Nuclear power is experiencing a new lease on life. Driven by dwindling oil and gas supplies, the insecurity of importing fuel and heightened concerns over greenhouse gas emissions, nuclear power will play a vital role meeting the growing demands of an energy hungry world for now and the foreseeable future. Existing plants have reached record levels of performance and safety, resulting in new levels of confidence among utility executives and the public. Recent developments in Finland, the United States, and the burgeoning nuclear power in China illustrate the forces driving the renaissance of nuclear power.

Finland: A Bellwether for European Nuclear Power Renaissance

On May 24, 2002, a Western European nation authorized a new reactor for the first time in over 9 years when Finland's parliament voted 107-92 in favor of a request by Teollisuuden Voima Oy (TVO) for a new reactor at one of the two existing plant sites in Finland. Nine years earlier, the parliament had rejected such a request. Before this landmark decision, only Asia and East European countries were active in nuclear power development.

Key factors driving the decision include a national climate strategy to meet its Kyoto Protocol emissions commitment and Finland's heavy reliance on fossil fuel imports. Finland currently imports over 70% of the energy it consumes. Finland's ministry of trade and industry said that nuclear power was its most cost-effective, baseload power alternative.

According to TVO, the new reactor will have an installed capacity between 1000 and 1600 MWe, depending upon the final design and vendor choice. Bid specifications should be completed by the fall 2002, and every major vendor, including Framatome ANP, is expected to compete for the project. This will be Finland's fifth nuclear reactor and it will increase the amount of electricity generated by nuclear power from 27% to about 35%.

Finland also is leading the way in the management of spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste. The parliament voted last year in favor of a final spent fuel storage facility. The repository will be the first of its kind in the world, and will demonstrate that there are no technical or financial barriers preventing the final storage, deep underground, of spent nuclear fuel. The only obstacle to resolving this important environmental issue in Finland, as well as other countries using nuclear power, appears to be entirely political.

In Europe, Finland is not an isolated case. It simply was the first country that had to decide on new construction. In the UK, the government is considering nuclear an option for replacing aging gas-cooled reactors and is launching a public debate. In Spain, the utilities advocate new nuclear construction to cope with electricity demand growth and have strong support from EU commissioner Loyola de Palacio, responsible for Transport and Energy. Finally, Italy which closed down its three remaining nuclear power plants after the Chernobyl accident, is considering a new nuclear program.

Nuclear Power Poised for Growth in the United States

A greater-than-forecast increase in demand for electric power during the economic expansion of the 1990's and some very visible problems meeting electricity demand in California last year contributed to the US government's issuing a National Energy Policy report that recommended that nuclear power be expanded and be an essential component in the country's energy mix.

The 103 operating nuclear power plants currently generate about one fifth of the electricity consumed in the US. Improvements achieved in nuclear plant performance over the last decade have added the equivalent of more than 18 new 1000 MWe plants. Ninety-five percent of the currently operating nuclear plants are expected to apply for license extension for an additional 20 years, from 40 to 60 years. These significant improvements in the operation of current nuclear plants coupled with its safety record have enhanced public confidence that future plants can be operated equally well, or better.

The improved stature of nuclear power coupled with a perception of both capacity and strategic needs have led to the potential for a rebirth of the commercial nuclear industry in the United States. Concerns about electricity supply, public policy issues such as the organizational structure of the electric transmission system, the security of the nation's energy supplies, and environmental concerns are current issues under examination.

Other key issues that will impact any new nuclear plant orders in the United States include long-term spent fuel disposal, the regulatory regime, carbon taxes, coal plant emissions legislation, transmission and distribution, infrastructure management, and the reliability of oil and gas supplies.

Perhaps the biggest potential obstacle to new nuclear power development in the United States is the unresolved spent fuel issue. After nearly 20 years of scientific study, the Administration has recommended a permanent repository be constructed at Yucca Mountain in Nevada, and the US Congress recently approved it. Although there is still a long way to go, like Finland, a resolution on the repository can pave the way for new nuclear power generation in the United States.

Nuclear Power Fueling Economic Expansion in China

Perhaps no other market is currently demonstrating the benefits of nuclear power as much as China, the world's most populated nation. China is facing the challenge of an expanding economy and rising electricity demand. In fact, China is currently the second largest energy consumer in the world at 10 percent.

China's modernization movement and rapidly growing economy will drive energy demand growth of about 4-5 percent annually through 2015 (compared with growth of about 1 percent in the industrialized countries).

China became a net importer of energy in 1995, and is expected to become increasingly dependent on imports. It is counting on nuclear power to reduce its reliance on energy imports. Production and distribution of energy is one of China's greatest challenges in coming years. For instance, only about 80 percent of the population is connected to the electrical grid, energy reserves are far from consumption centers, and bottlenecks exist in transportation and electricity distribution. About 60 percent of rail transport is tied up in transporting coal.

Nuclear power development in China was set in motion in 1970 by the former Chinese premier, Zhou Enlai, and is going full throttle today. There are currently five nuclear power reactors in operation, with six additional units under construction and more planned. However, because of China's electrical grid limitations, nuclear power stations are, by necessity, located in the south and southeast where economic growth is fastest and there is no coal.

Framatome ANP has been a major contributor to nuclear power development in China by supplying equipment and through ongoing technology transfers. Two reactors at Daya Bay near Hong Kong were supplied by Framatome ANP. Qinshan-1, 100 kilometers southwest of Shanghai, is China's first indigenously designed and constructed nuclear power plant. In 2001, these three reactors generated 16.7 billion kWh of electricity, covering 1.2% of electricity demand.

Two other units started up at the beginning of 2002: the first unit of Qinshan phase 2 and Ling Ao-1. Qinshan phase 2 was constructed indigenously with a technology transfer from Framatome ANP for design. The two Ling Ao reactors are virtually a replica of Daya Bay next door in Guangdong province and were supplied by Framatome ANP. Some high-tech equipment was provided by local manufacturers.

Framatome ANP Stands Ready

The need to replace older power plants of all types, growing environmental concerns linked to the greenhouse effect, and the global increase in energy consumption will most certainly result in a nuclear energy renaissance over the next decade. As the world's leading nuclear vendor, Framatome ANP is fully prepared to support nuclear power growth around the world.

Framatome ANP is working on several designs to meet new demands. The EPR is an advanced evolutionary designed PWR developed to meet European utility requirements. Its design takes into account severe accident situations such as airplane crashes and earthquakes and its operating and maintenance costs are lower than those of the newest operating plants. It is particularly well suited to the European replacement market because of its high power output - 1550 MWe - and is consistent with the challenging specific investment and operating cost targets. The transmission grid in most European countries can accommodate the EPR's capacity, and there are a limited number of sites.

The SWR 1000 is an advanced design BWR that integrates passive safety systems. Its inherent simplicity and innovations plus its size of 1000 to 1250 MWe make it appealing for several markets. Its generating costs are competitive with coal plants and gas turbines. Framatome ANP recently has begun the Design Certification process in the US for the SWR 1000.

In addition, Framatome ANP participates in the Generation IV International Forum that is developing a nuclear technology roadmap of next generation reactors. Within this framework, Framatome ANP is developing new and more innovative designs, such as gas-cooled reactors.

It is clear that the nuclear industry landscape is changing, and it is essential that nuclear equipment manufacturers develop new, more cost-effective plant designs that can compete with fossil-fueled generation facilities. The time has come for inherently safer, more cost-effective, reactor technologies capable of delivering reliable, emission-free electricity. Framatome ANP is ready to meet the challenge.

Although there are minor differences in the driving forces between the countries, it is clear that the primary ones that favor future nuclear development are the instability of importing fossil fuels, the ongoing interest in improving the environment, and a need for dependable power generation. Permanent waste disposal is an issue all over the world and grid issues could play a role in the US and China. However, with growing public confidence in nuclear power and its inherent benefits, the future of nuclear power looks encouraging indeed.

Computerized 3D model of the SWR 1000 allows for isolation of individual systems and components

Public Opinion Not an Obstacle to Growth of Nuclear Power

Many political and industry observers believe recent developments in Finland and the US Administration's support for nuclear power reflect a broad shift in public and political attitudes toward nuclear power. There appears to be a growing awareness of nuclear power's environmental benefits and recognition of improvements in performance and safety.

Indeed, the decision to gradually phase out nuclear power by certain European countries has been due primarily to political pressures and not a response to public opposition to nuclear power. To the contrary, public opinion polls by institutions such as the European Union in Europe show that widespread public opposition to the use of nuclear power does not exist.

Recent polls conducted in Germany, France and Sweden revealed two important facts regarding the public acceptance of nuclear power: there is no major opposition; and support for a nuclear phase-out is limited.

The German poll showed that well over 60% of the population believes that phasing out nuclear is not a realistic option for the short term. In Sweden, a survey showed strong support for the continued use of nuclear power, with 77% registering their opposition to the premature closure of the country's nuclear plants.

According to a poll carried out in France in April 2001, 88% believe the negative effects of greenhouse gas emissions should be taken into account when making energy generation choices. Sixty-seven percent of those polled viewed nuclear as an important factor for the security of French energy supply.

Public acceptance in the United States appears to be quite high. Opinion surveys conducted by the Nuclear Energy Institute show that the number of Americans who favor the use of nuclear energy hasn't been this high since 1983.

In a poll conducted in April 2001, 66% agreed that the United States should build more nuclear power plants in the future. And, 68% said nuclear energy should play an important role in meeting America's future energy needs.

Overall, there seems to be little connection between the level of public acceptance and the policies being pursued by some governments regarding nuclear power.

If all waste is managed safely, nuclear power should remain an option for electricity production

Source: Europeans and Radioactive Waste Report, DG Press and Communication European Commission (19 April 2002). *Source: Perspective on Public Opinion prepared by the Nuclear Energy Institute (March 2001).